2 The Islamic State’s steady decline now seemed to hold the promise of vindicating al-Zawahiri’s strategy and seemed it could lead to disillusioned fighters and other jihadis joining al-Qa`ida’s ranks. In May 2016, Abu Muhammad al-Adnani, the Islamic State’s then spokesman, conceded that his group could be expelled out of its major strongholds in Sirte, Raqqa, and Mosul, 1 while Ayman al-Zawahiri, al-Qa`ida’s leader, mocked the deteriorating fortunes of the Islamic State. Prior to that, the military gains of the Islamic State and the caliphate that it had established had cast doubt over the viability of al-Qa`ida’s more patient strategy. As a result, by mid-2016, the Islamic State’s territorial decline had become vast and visible, and counterterrorism analysts began to wonder if al-Qa`ida could gain back its position as the standard bearer of the global jihadi movement. But by provoking conflict with much of the rest of the world, the Islamic State rallied a powerful coalition against it. When the Islamic State declared a caliphate in 2014, took over large parts of Syria and Iraq, and thereby energized Islamist extremists worldwide, some predicted it would forever eclipse al-Qa`ida. In recent years, the global jihadi movement has been in a state of flux. Neither group is on the brink of fracturing nor likely to accept the legitimacy of the other in the coming years. While the relative fortunes of the Islamic State and al-Qa`ida have oscillated in recent years, developments in the jihadi environment in Syria have hardened longstanding differences between them in doctrine and approach. But rather than being about to enter a period of mergers or takeovers, the global jihadi movement for the foreseeable future is likely to be led by two distinct and rival groups. Abstract: With the collapse of the Islamic State’s territorial caliphate, the global jihadi movement is in a state of flux.
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